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In Cincinnati and Winston-Salem, Wolf did not make it past any rounds, but in Washington, he managed to win three matches. The year-old stopped Denis Shapovalov , , in the second round and then took on Holger Rune , , in the next match. Wolf has won nine of his last ten matches as a favourite. Stefan won just one match last week at the Challenger in Cary In that match, he defeated Cannon Kingsley , , before losing to Yasutaka Uchiyama , Interestingly, before the US Open, Kozlov lost seven matches in a row, dropping to th in the rankings as a result.

Kozlov has only won four matches at the ATP main draw level this season. Stefan Kozlov has lost eight of his last nine matches on the hard court. Even some broadly successful countries have embraced policies that were costly to their economy. Crucially, learning from mistakes is intrinsic to success—and having structures that make this feedback loop possible is no doubt critical. Even though both sets of countries adopted the same rhetoric, those that were far less successful did not appear to take actions consistent with growth and development.

It would be naive to suggest that these nations and their leaders simply did not know what to do—it was not just a question of ignorance or lack of good advice. Understanding why the rhetoric was followed by action in some places and not in others is at the centre of understanding how development works. Three conditions need to be satisfied: Durable political and economic deals among the elite, to start with on peace and stability.

Long horizons are required for growth and development; conflict and instability shorten horizons in political and economic decision-making. A mature, sensible state. Few people studying development would claim that the state does not play a role in it, but there are huge differences in how much the state takes on in the quest for development. This is true even in successful cases, as well as in failures.

Success requires finding a balance between what the state should do and what it can do—and local circumstances will dictate what this is. Ability to learn from mistakes and correct course. There is no recipe for finding the right way of igniting and sustaining growth: it is a gamble. Success is not guaranteed, errors will be made, and confidence in leaders will at times be eroded. Stability may be threatened as some in the elite gain less or even lose. The need to correct will test the economic and political deal.

Nevertheless, finding ways to correct course is essential for success, which will depend on mechanisms to hold to account those entrusted with implementing the deal. No doubt they do matter—how could anyone disagree? Even successful countries have quite diverse histories.

In fact, several of the success stories described in [my] book did not necessarily have strong institutions at the time of take-off. Even China, after the nationalist and Maoist eras of the preceding half-century, hardly had strong institutions to deliver the kind of take-off it achieved post The political and economic elite have much more agency than is usually allowed by the historical approach to institutions.

A development bargain is just one of many possible deals among the elite. Any stable elite bargain is not just a political deal, but also an economic deal about access to and distribution of the resources of the state and the economy. In a development bargain, this economic deal is centred around pursuing growth and development.

It needs to provide the basis for peace and stability, and it determines the extent to which the state apparatus is best used in pursuit of economic progress. How this consensus, this bargain, is obtained or sustained manifests itself in varying forms from place to place and period to period. One thing is clear: when those in the political and economic elite move towards longer-term growth and development, they are making a bet that may not pay off.

The elite tend to gain from the status quo—that is, the political system and the economy are built to serve them. Elites that move towards growth and development, with the long-term perspective that it requires, tend to gamble that restraint and lower gains in the short term may pay off later.

Vested interests are bound to be affected, and the risks to their own position are obvious. The elite are thus gambling on development. A development bargain does not simply consist of specific development goals or targets, such as a public signing of the Sustainable Development Goals. It is much more than that, even if far less specific: it is an implicit contract among those who can make development happen. So many countries that seemed to be basket cases only a few decades ago have improved dramatically, even if not yet reaching living standards that people deserve.

The lives of billions of people are better now than I thought they would be, despite the odds. Political and economic leaders, intellectuals, academics, and citizens in general in those failing places that risk staying further behind would do well to learn the lessons from these successes—and dare to gamble on development. In the last thirty years, the developing world has undergone tremendous changes.

Overall, poverty has fallen, people live longer and healthier lives, and economies have been transformed. And yet many countries have simply missed the boat.

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