Economics of forex trading
If, for example, the CPI comes in higher than previously expected, it will give the impression that monetary policy will be tightened in the near future, resulting in a bullish market for the U. Its purpose is simply to offer insight into business world conditions to people such as analysts, purchasing managers, and decision makers for companies.
The information is gathered through surveys sent monthly to about companies, and is then generated by the Institute of Supply Management on a monthly basis. PMI readings of greater than 50 imply growth in the manufacturing sector, while a reading that remains at 50 indicates no growth, with a lower figure being self-explanatory. There are literally hundreds of components to this index, which are then compiled and reported as a level of the index.
It is expressed as the current output against a base year, which, at time of writing, is Therefore, the May output levels were 5 percent higher than the average level of Though manufacturing is a sector that only makes up approximately 20 percent of the U.
In addition, it is considered pro-cyclical, meaning that there is a correlation between the movements of the index and that of the business cycle. Some analysts even use this report as an early indicator of the GDP. The number in this report is nominal dollar value, meaning that it is not tuned for inflation. The report offers a percentage change from the previous month, as well. For example, a trader may anticipate that the British pound will strengthen in value.
The trader will exchange U. If the pound then strengthens, the trader can do the transaction in reverse, getting more dollars for the pounds. These represent the U. There will also be a price associated with each pair, such as 1. If the price increases to 1. In the forex market, currencies trade in lots , called micro, mini, and standard lots. A micro lot is 1, worth of a given currency, a mini lot is 10,, and a standard lot is , Trades take place in set blocks of currency.
For example, a trader can exchange seven micro lots 7, , three mini lots 30, , or 75 standard lots 7,, Trading volume in the forex market is generally very large. Historically, foreign exchange market participation was for governments, large companies, and hedge funds.
In today's world, trading currencies is as easy as a click of a mouse and accessibility is not an issue. Many investment companies allow individuals to open accounts and trade currencies through their platforms. This is not like a trip to a foreign exchange kiosk. The process is entirely electronic with no physical exchange of money from one hand to another. Rather, traders are taking a position in a specific currency in the hope that there will be some upward movement and strength in the currency that they're buying or weakness if they're selling so that they can make a profit.
Forex Market vs. Other Markets There are some fundamental differences between foreign exchange and other markets. First of all, there are fewer rules, which means investors aren't held to strict standards or regulations like those in the stock, futures, and options markets. There are no clearing houses and no central bodies that oversee the forex market. Second, since trades don't take place on a traditional exchange, there are fewer fees or commissions like those on other markets.
Next, there's no cutoff as to when you can and cannot trade. Because the market is open 24 hours a day, you can trade at any time. Finally, because it's such a liquid market, you can get in and out whenever you want and you can buy as much currency as you can afford. Types of Forex Transactions Forex traders transact in one of three distinct marketplaces: the spot, the forward, or the futures market. The spot rate is the current exchange rate.
A transaction in the spot market is an agreement to trade one currency for another currency at the prevailing spot rate. Spot transactions for most currencies are finalized in two business days. The major exception is the U. The price is established on the trade date, but money is exchanged on the value date.
Role of the U. Dollar The U. Trading pairs that do not include the dollar are referred to as crosses. The most common crosses are the euro versus the pound and the euro versus the yen. The spot market can be very volatile. Movement in the short term is dominated by technical trading, which bases trading decisions on a currency's direction and speed of movement.
Longer-term changes in a currency's value are driven by fundamental factors such as a nation's interest rates and economic growth. The Forex Forward Market A forward trade is any trade that settles further in the future than a spot transaction. The forward price is a combination of the spot rate plus or minus forward points that represent the interest rate differential between the two currencies.
Most forward trades have a maturity of less than a year in the future but a longer term is possible. As in the spot market, the price is set on the transaction date but money is exchanged on the maturity date. A forward contract is tailor-made to the requirements of the counterparties.
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Rather, currency trading is conducted electronically over the counter OTC , which means that all transactions occur via computer networks among traders around the world, rather than on one centralized exchange. The market is open 24 hours a day, five and a half days a week, and currencies are traded worldwide in the major financial centers of Frankfurt, Hong Kong, London, New York, Paris, Singapore, Sydney, Tokyo, and Zurich—across almost every time zone.
This means that when the U. As such, the forex market can be extremely active anytime, with price quotes changing constantly. These terms are synonymous and all refer to the forex market. A Brief History of Forex In its most basic sense, the forex market has been around for centuries. People have always exchanged or bartered goods and currencies to purchase goods and services. However, the forex market, as we understand it today, is a relatively modern invention.
After the Bretton Woods accord began to collapse in , more currencies were allowed to float freely against one another. The values of individual currencies vary based on demand and circulation and are monitored by foreign exchange trading services. Commercial and investment banks conduct most of the trading in forex markets on behalf of their clients, but there are also speculative opportunities for trading one currency against another for professional and individual investors.
There are two distinct features of currencies as an asset class : You can earn the interest rate differential between two currencies. You can profit from changes in the exchange rate. An investor can profit from the difference between two interest rates in two different economies by buying the currency with the higher interest rate and shorting the currency with the lower interest rate.
Prior to the financial crisis, it was very common to short the Japanese yen JPY and buy British pounds GBP because the interest rate differential was very large. This strategy is sometimes referred to as a carry trade. Currency trading was very difficult for individual investors prior to the Internet. Most currency traders were large multinational corporations , hedge funds , or high-net-worth individuals HNWIs because forex trading required a lot of capital.
With help from the Internet, a retail market aimed at individual traders has emerged, providing easy access to the foreign exchange markets through either the banks themselves or brokers making a secondary market. Most online brokers or dealers offer very high leverage to individual traders who can control a large trade with a small account balance.
It is the only truly continuous and nonstop trading market in the world. In the past, the forex market was dominated by institutional firms and large banks, which acted on behalf of clients. But it has become more retail-oriented in recent years, and traders and investors of many holding sizes have begun participating in it.
An interesting aspect of world forex markets is that there are no physical buildings that function as trading venues for the markets. Instead, it is a series of connections made through trading terminals and computer networks. Participants in this market are institutions, investment banks, commercial banks, and retail investors.
The foreign exchange market is considered more opaque than other financial markets. Currencies are traded in OTC markets, where disclosures are not mandatory. Large liquidity pools from institutional firms are a prevalent feature of the market.
A survey found that the motives of large financial institutions played the most important role in determining currency prices. Forex is traded primarily via three venues: spot markets, forwards markets, and futures markets. When people refer to the forex market, they are thus usually referring to the spot market. The forwards and futures markets tend to be more popular with companies or financial firms that need to hedge their foreign exchange risks out to a specific date in the future.
Spot Market Forex trading in the spot market has always been the largest because it trades in the biggest underlying real asset for the forwards and futures markets. Previously, volumes in the forwards and futures markets surpassed those of the spot markets.
However, the trading volumes for forex spot markets received a boost with the advent of electronic trading and the proliferation of forex brokers. The spot market is where currencies are bought and sold based on their trading price. That price is determined by supply and demand and is calculated based on several factors, including current interest rates, economic performance, sentiment toward ongoing political situations both locally and internationally , and the perception of the future performance of one currency against another.
A finalized deal is known as a spot deal. It is a bilateral transaction in which one party delivers an agreed-upon currency amount to the counterparty and receives a specified amount of another currency at the agreed-upon exchange rate value. After a position is closed, the settlement is in cash. Although the spot market is commonly known as one that deals with transactions in the present rather than in the future , these trades actually take two days for settlement.
Forwards and Futures Markets A forward contract is a private agreement between two parties to buy a currency at a future date and at a predetermined price in the OTC markets. A futures contract is a standardized agreement between two parties to take delivery of a currency at a future date and at a predetermined price. Futures trade on exchanges and not OTC. In the forwards market, contracts are bought and sold OTC between two parties, who determine the terms of the agreement between themselves.
In the futures market, futures contracts are bought and sold based upon a standard size and settlement date on public commodities markets, such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange CME. Futures contracts have specific details, including the number of units being traded, delivery and settlement dates, and minimum price increments that cannot be customized. The exchange acts as a counterparty to the trader, providing clearance and settlement services.
Both types of contracts are binding and are typically settled for cash at the exchange in question upon expiry, although contracts can also be bought and sold before they expire. The currency forwards and futures markets can offer protection against risk when trading currencies. Usually, big international corporations use these markets to hedge against future exchange rate fluctuations, but speculators take part in these markets as well.
In addition to forwards and futures, options contracts are also traded on certain currency pairs. Forex options give holders the right, but not the obligation, to enter into a forex trade at a future date and for a pre-set exchange rate, before the option expires. Unlike the spot market, the forwards, futures, and options markets do not trade actual currencies. Instead, they deal in contracts that represent claims to a certain currency type, a specific price per unit, and a future date for settlement.
This is why they are known as derivatives markets. Uses of the Forex Markets Forex for Hedging Companies doing business in foreign countries are at risk due to fluctuations in currency values when they buy or sell goods and services outside of their domestic market. Foreign exchange markets provide a way to hedge currency risk by fixing a rate at which the transaction will be completed.
To accomplish this, a trader can buy or sell currencies in the forward or swap markets in advance, which locks in an exchange rate. For example, imagine that a company plans to sell U. Unfortunately, the U. A stronger dollar resulted in a much smaller profit than expected. The blender company could have reduced this risk by short selling the euro and buying the U. That way, if the U. If the U. Hedging of this kind can be done in the currency futures market.
The advantage for the trader is that futures contracts are standardized and cleared by a central authority. However, currency futures may be less liquid than the forwards markets, which are decentralized and exist within the interbank system throughout the world. Forex for Speculation Factors like interest rates , trade flows, tourism, economic strength, and geopolitical risk affect the supply and demand for currencies, creating daily volatility in the forex markets. A forecast that one currency will weaken is essentially the same as assuming that the other currency in the pair will strengthen because currencies are traded as pairs.
The trader believes higher U. How to Start Trading Forex Trading forex is similar to equity trading. Here are some steps to get yourself started on the forex trading journey. Learn about forex: While it is not complicated, forex trading is a project of its own and requires specialized knowledge. For example, the leverage ratio for forex trades is higher than for equities, and the drivers for currency price movement are different from those for equity markets.
There are several online courses available for beginners that teach the ins and outs of forex trading. Set up a brokerage account: You will need a forex trading account at a brokerage to get started with forex trading. Forex brokers do not charge commissions. Instead, they make money through spreads also known as pips between the buying and selling prices.
For beginner traders, it is a good idea to set up a micro forex trading account with low capital requirements. Such accounts have variable trading limits and allow brokers to limit their trades to amounts as low as 1, units of a currency.
For context, a standard account lot is equal to , currency units. A micro forex account will help you become more comfortable with forex trading and determine your trading style. Develop a trading strategy: While it is not always possible to predict and time market movement, having a trading strategy will help you set broad guidelines and a road map for trading.
A good trading strategy is based on the reality of your situation and finances. It takes into account the amount of cash that you are willing to put up for trading and, correspondingly, the amount of risk that you can tolerate without getting burned out of your position. Remember, forex trading is mostly a high-leverage environment. But it also offers more rewards to those who are willing to take the risk. Always be on top of your numbers: Once you begin trading, always check your positions at the end of the day.
Most trading software already provides a daily accounting of trades. Make sure that you do not have any pending positions to be filled out and that you have sufficient cash in your account to make future trades. Cultivate emotional equilibrium: Beginner forex trading is fraught with emotional roller coasters and unanswered questions. Should you have held onto your position a bit longer for more profits? How did you miss that report about low gross domestic product GDP numbers that led to a decline in overall value of your portfolio?
Obsessing over such unanswered questions can lead you down a path of confusion. That is why it is important to not get carried away by your trading positions and cultivate emotional equilibrium across profits and losses. Be disciplined about closing out your positions when necessary. Forex Terminology The best way to get started on the forex journey is to learn its language. Here are a few terms to get you started: Forex account: A forex account is used to make currency trades.
Remember that the trading limit for each lot includes margin money used for leverage. This means that the broker can provide you with capital in a predetermined ratio. Ask: An ask or offer is the lowest price at which you are willing to buy a currency.
The ask price is generally greater than the bid price. Bid: A bid is the price at which you are willing to sell a currency. A market maker in a given currency is responsible for continuously putting out bids in response to buyer queries. While they are generally lower than ask prices, in instances when demand is great, bid prices can be higher than ask prices. Bear market: A bear market is one in which prices decline among currencies. Bear markets signify a market downtrend and are the result of depressing economic fundamentals or catastrophic events, such as a financial crisis or a natural disaster.
Bull market: A bull market is one in which prices increase for all currencies. Bull markets signify a market uptrend and are the result of optimistic news about the global economy. Contract for difference: A contract for difference CFD is a derivative that enables traders to speculate on price movements for currencies without actually owning the underlying asset.
A trader betting that the price of a currency pair will increase will buy CFDs for that pair, while those who believe its price will decline will sell CFDs relating to that currency pair. The use of leverage in forex trading means that a CFD trade gone awry can lead to heavy losses. Leverage: Leverage is the use of borrowed capital to multiply returns.
The forex market is characterized by high leverages, and traders often use these leverages to boost their positions. Since they have used very little of their own capital, the trader stands to make significant profits if the trade goes in the correct direction. The flipside to a high-leverage environment is that downside risks are enhanced and can result in significant losses.
Lot size: Currencies are traded in standard sizes known as lots. There are four common lot sizes: standard , mini , micro , and nano. Standard lot sizes consist of , units of the currency. Mini lot sizes consist of 10, units, and micro lot sizes consist of 1, units of the currency. Capital Markets and Forex The global capital markets are perhaps the most visible indicators of an economy's health.
It is easy to notice the release of public information in capital markets. There is a steady flow of media coverage and up-to-the-second information on the dealings of corporations, institutions, and government entities. A rally or sell-off of securities originating from one country or another should be a clear signal that the future outlook for that economy has changed.
Similarly, many economies are sector-driven, such as Canada's commodity-based market. The Canadian dollar is heavily correlated with commodities, such as crude oil and metals. Commodity traders, like forex traders, rely heavily on economic data for their trades. In many cases, the same data will have a direct impact on both markets.
Trading currency and commodity correlations is a fascinating topic. The bond markets are similarly critical to what is happening in the forex market since both fixed-income securities and currencies rely heavily on interest rates. Treasury price fluctuations are a factor in the movements of exchange rates, which means that a change in yields will directly affect currency values.
Therefore, it is essential to understand bonds , and especially government bonds , to excel as a forex trader. International Trade and Forex Another critical factor is the balance of trade between nations. The trade balance serves as a proxy for the relative demand for goods from a country. A nation with products or services that are in high demand internationally will typically see an appreciation of its currency.
For example, buyers must convert their money into Australian dollars if they want to purchase goods from Australia. The increased demand for the Australian dollar will put upward pressure on its value. On the other hand, countries with large trade deficits are net buyers of international goods.
More of their currency is sold to purchase the currency of other nations to pay for foreign goods. This type of situation is likely to have a negative impact on the value of an importing country's currency. Political News and Forex Markets The political landscape plays a vital role in the overall outlook for a country and, consequently, the perceived value of its currency.
Forex traders are constantly monitoring political news and events to anticipate changes in the economic policies of national governments. These can include shifts in government spending and adjustments in regulations imposed on particular sectors or industries. Changes in rules regarding margin or leverage available to traders often have a dramatic impact on markets.
Elections with uncertain outcomes are always significant events for currency markets. Exchange rates often react favorably to wins by pro-growth or fiscally responsible parties. A referendum can also have a substantial impact on exchange rates. A good example is the Brexit vote, which had a dramatic effect on the British pound when the U. The fiscal and monetary policies of any government are the most critical factors in its economic decision making.
Central bank decisions that impact interest rates are keenly watched by the forex market for any changes in key rates or the future outlook of policymakers. Economic Statistics and Forex Economic reports are the backbone of a forex trader's playbook. Maintaining an economic report calendar is crucial to staying current in this fast-paced marketplace. Gross domestic product GDP may be the most visible economic statistic, as it is the baseline of a country's economic performance and strength.
GDP measures the total output of goods and services produced within an economy.
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