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The survey also tried to find out the challenges Nigerian electorates would like the presidential candidates to address when elected in February Yemi Osinbajo, 28 percent, Bola Tinubu 7. The survey asked the respondent to rank 15 candidates listed in options in their Most Preferred and Least Preferred order. Peter Obi and Yemi Osinbajo were the most preferred candidates, while Bola Tinubu and Abubakar Malami were the least preferred candidates.
The poll also gauged the preferences of Nigerians based on their regions and found that Southerners preferred Obi The most preferred vice presidential candidates are Aminu Tambuwal While Turkey led all markets following its 7. However, China, the only country in positive territory in the second quarter, finished at the bottom of the pack as increasing local economic troubles as well as geopolitical tensions weighed on share prices.
From a sector perspective, energy, utilities, consumer staples, and financials led the way, while real estate, communication services, consumer discretionary, and information technology lagged. Russia, whose budget surplus significantly deteriorated in the third quarter, had to discount its oil further to encourage new buyers, such as India, China, and Turkey, to purchase barrels that would previously have gone to Europe. As Brazilians were preparing to vote in the presidential elections, the decline in the quality of life was at the forefront of their minds.
As Brazil heads into the second round of voting, what can we expect from each candidate? His main asset is his association with good economic times and caring for the poor. Average growth forecasts for went from 0. Meanwhile, inflation seems to be moderating, with levels coming down in July and August. Finally, unemployment has declined to 9. The policy views of the two candidates diverge, especially on the fiscal side Exhibit 2.
The two also differ on environmental policy. However, for any conservation effort to prove successful, it must not only fight illegal logging but also offer economic alternatives to the deforesters. Whatever the outcome, the next president could enjoy the benefits of a better economy as more robust economic activity, lower unemployment, and lower inflation could reduce pressure for a more expansionary fiscal program.
Thus far, no apparent political heir has emerged, which is likely by design as it allows Xi to preserve his influence. For Xi, the political and health costs of a severe outbreak significantly outweigh any foreign or domestic discontent with the policy. When the leadership transition is completed in March of next year, China should be in a better position regarding vaccination of the elderly and treatment stockpiles.
However, delays on these efforts remain possible, which could prolong the commitment to zero-COVID and potentially delay an economic recovery. Exhibit 2: Bolsonaro vs. These stimulus efforts harken back to the days of investment-driven growth and the Global Financial Crisis.
Policy leaders are trying to walk an economic tightrope, unveiling government stimulus and looser monetary policy to moderate slowing growth, while avoiding taking on much more debt. Tensions and Relief Valves For China, the third quarter has also been marked by greater tensions with the United States and Taiwan, and we expect further strain ahead.
Although China is unlikely to regularly conduct missile tests near Taiwan, or routinely close nearby waters to commercial traffic as it did in August, such actions will probably become less unusual. One positive development between the United States and China during the third quarter was a preliminary agreement to permit American auditors to inspect the records of US-listed Chinese companies.
The news came amid an ongoing saga between regulators, which has led to great uncertainty over the future of more than US-listed Chinese companies and even the potential delisting of some Chinese stocks. Under the new agreement, China will allow the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board access to audit working papers and personnel of US-listed companies. While the agreement is encouraging, many Chinese companies since the end of have sought listing status in Hong Kong, via either a secondary listing or a dual primary listing.
Additionally, many investors have already started to convert their US-listed Chinese ADRs to Hong Kong shares, which has resulted in a gradual shift in the market capitalization breakdown of Chinese equities to more A-share, or mainland-listed, and Hong Kong focused Exhibit 3. Market cap for companies listed in more than one market is not double counted.
Amid escalating US-China tension, the mainland A-share and the Hong Kong equity markets are likely to play dominant roles in the equity fund-raising needs of Chinese companies going forward, while the role of the US equity market could dwindle.
The bill specifies that semiconductor producers accepting American subsidies would not be able to expand advanced defined as circuits smaller than 28 nanometers chip manufacturing in China for 10 years. In focusing US restrictions on newer generations of semiconductors, however, the legislation could leave the door open for China to dominate the production of older chips that are used in cars and other consumer products.
While US strategy is leaning toward containing China by blocking off access to the resources needed to develop advanced semiconductors, Xi will likely emphasize the sense of urgency and renew the commitment for China to step up the development of its homegrown chip industry, making it self-sufficient in critical technologies. The bill, which aims to reshape relations with Taiwan and deter any attack by China, formally designates Taiwan as a major non-NATO ally, and compels the United States to impose sanctions on big Chinese financial firms in response to any hostile actions in or against Taiwan.
The bill still requires a vote in the full Senate and House, and lawmakers could possibly insert it into another big piece of legislation, such as the National Defense Authorization Act. Why Emerging Markets Now? For investors, the steep drop in equity markets so far this year may raise the question of where to find value and long-term opportunity. Below are several reasons we believe emerging markets to be one of the most mispriced asset classes, with valuations at some of their most attractive levels ever.
Demographic and urbanization trends should provide supportive tailwinds for long-term growth. Though growth has slowed, emerging markets continue to trade with an economic growth premium over developed markets. Emerging markets central banks raised rates before their developed markets counterparts, and the same may prove true when it comes time to cut rates.
We believe this is an attractive entry point: Valuations remain attractive vs. Emerging markets investment returns have historically been closely tied to the rise and fall of commodities prices and global growth expectations. Over the past 20 years, however, emerging markets equities have evolved, serving as a source of ever-changing investment opportunities.
Liquidity has deepened, and investor interest has steadily increased. Yet, the asset class remains under-owned. Demographic trends and urbanization are supportive long-term tailwinds that can accelerate growth for the asset class. With a growing middle class comes a consumer that is younger, increasingly more educated, and a faster adopter of new technology, with constant changes in consumption patterns and preferences.
Although economic growth forecasts globally have declined over this year due to the effects of the pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and tighter financial conditions to combat inflation, emerging markets equities are still trading with an economic growth premium over those of developed markets. There are reasons to expect higher economic growth going forward: Barring a major global recession, we are likely to enter a period of gradual economic recovery, helped by a combination of infrastructure spending, particularly on energy in Europe, and increasing capital expenditures in developed countries.
At the same time, inflation—and rate hikes—may be peaking in emerging markets countries. The Central Bank of Brazil was the first major emerging markets central bank to begin raising rates last year, leading central bankers across Indonesia, South Africa, the Philippines, Mexico, Korea, and the developed world to tighten policy. That is welcome news for investors, especially as other emerging markets central banks may not be far behind.
The current environment, characterized by high commodity prices, has boosted the terms of trade and improved foreign exchange reserves and external balances in many emerging markets. Several countries have undertaken key economic reforms in recent years, and as a result, they may be able to achieve a more stable and higher level of growth and improved fiscal performance. With floating exchange rate regimes and generally more transparent monetary and fiscal policy, they are also less likely to suffer the boom-bust phenomenon that was a feature of emerging markets a couple of decades ago.
Much capital has left emerging markets in recent years, and many parts of the asset class are under-owned and attractively valued as a result. Overall, emerging markets equities are among these attractively valued assets, with relatively high profitability, or return on equity, free cash flow, and dividend yields. A diverse opportunity set, numerous fundamental drivers, and persistent market inefficiencies make the asset class ripe for alpha generation through active management.
Debt Like the equity markets, fixed income markets were weighed down by a confluence of factors in the third quarter. The rise in bond yields this year has reached historic proportions, creating an abysmal period for fixed income investors Exhibit 4. Equally unprecedented is the breadth of the drawdown: All corners of the fixed income market have been affected.
For the Global Aggregate, more than a decade of returns have been completely unwound in Early on, market participants actually scaled back their expectations of rate hikes from the Fed. Attention shifted back to the willingness of the Fed and other central banks across the globe to tolerate higher rates for longer to contain inflation, even at the expense of weaker growth.
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Meanwhile, Republican voters must choose between former North Carolina Gov. Ted Budd. Tim Ryan has vastly out-raised his Democratic opponents, while Republican contenders include author J. Vance, former state treasurer Josh Mandel and state Sen. Matt Dolan. They are all locked in a bruising battle ahead of their May 3 primary. Republicans have an advantage in these states, but at least until the dust settles from those primaries, both races are rated "Lean R" for now.
Two-term senators have the best possible incumbency advantage, with an average 5. In Florida, Sen. Marco Rubio, who has deftly aligned himself with modern conservative ideas, is up for re-election. Florida has veered red in recent elections, but he faces a formidable competitor in U. Val Demings, the former Orlando police chief. In Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson looks stronger than any Democratic opponent, but remember that Biden carried the state in on a 0.
Ron Johnson holds an edge over any Democrats challenging him for his Senate seat. For now, both are "Lean R" seats. Keep an eye on Alaska Alaska has elected a Democrat to federal office just once in its last 20 races. Suffice to say that the Senate seat up for reelection in the Last Frontier will remain in Republican hands this November.
Lisa Murkowski will win a fourth term. Alaska will employ a ranked-choice voting system this year, becoming just the second state to do so after Maine. In ranked-choice elections, voters order the candidates on the ballot by preference. In this election, voters will choose from the top four candidates after a nonpartisan primary, so a voter will put a "1" next to their top candidate and keep numbering up to "4" for their least favorite.
Voters will not be required to number all the boxes, so "traditional" voters can stick with a top choice only if they prefer. In theory, the reforms should make it easier for Murkowski to retain her seat, since she can rely on the second-choice ballots of progressive and moderate voters, whose candidates are likely to be knocked out of the race first.
Even so, ranked-choice voting is a new beast, and there are too many unknowns about the candidates and voter preferences to conclude that Murkowski will take it home. Expect forecasters to watch the returns from Alaska very closely on election night. Even so, the mood of the national electorate toward Democrats is grim, and that is dragging down left-of-center contenders across the gubernatorial map. Four Democratic governors are in more trouble than their prior results would suggest, beginning with Tim Walz of Minnesota and Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico, whose races are "Lean D" as of today.
Janet Mills of Maine and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan are in even more danger, with their races both ranked as "Toss Ups. Kate Brown is term limited. All of the governors named above were elected on 5-point-plus margins in , but the COVID pandemic has forced every governor to make difficult choices on issues ranging from hospital capacity, to business "reopening" dates, to masks in schools.
Voters are entering their third year of life in a pandemic, and they are turning against the advice given by government leaders. The Sunflower State is currently run by centrist Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, but this race goes firmly in the "Lean R" column, making it the easiest flip opportunity for Republicans on the board.
The Democrats have two promising flip opportunities in the Northeast, as voters in Maryland and Massachusetts choose a new governor. Each state has been led by a center-right Republican for the last eight years, but Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker are both term limited, leaving the races wide open in Voters in both states overwhelmingly prefer Democratic candidates at the presidential level, and GOP primary voters have shown little interest in nominating centrists this cycle.
Both races are rated "Lean D. Seven toss-ups under current conditions That brings us to the "Toss Up" states. There are seven on the map right now: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, plus the previously mentioned Maine and Michigan. With crowded primary fields and slim historical margins, it is too early to ascribe a competitive advantage to either party in any of these races. If Trump-backed candidates like these prevail during their primaries, then Republicans will need to rely heavily on rallying their bases ahead of November.
Ron DeSantis in Miami in July As the state continues to swing rightward, incumbent Gov.
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