Key numbers in basketball betting odds
A quick refresher if the details are murky: In football games there are some numbers that are a more frequent gap between the points the winner scores in a game and the points the loser scores. The most frequent of these gaps is three points. Seven is the second most common number because of how often a team wins by a single touchdown.
Other key numbers can be determined by combining touchdowns and field goals in different ways — for example ten is a key number because that represents a team winning by a field goal and a touchdown, and so is four which is the result if one team scores a touchdown and the other responds with a field goal. These numbers are important for bettors to be aware of because they can represent a big difference in the bottom line.
If key numbers are such an important factor in football handicapping, then the next logical question is clear — are there key numbers in basketball? The simple answer is no. And when it comes to March Madness betting and the NBA Finals wagers, knowing how to read all the types of prop bets should be high on your list.
Basketball Betting Moneylines When you bet on basketball, you will be required to place your wagers on specific NBA or college basketball odds. It might be hard at first, but you can learn how to read odds relatively easily. Try registering with a FanDuel promo code If you want a different offer, a Unibet bonus code might have what you are looking for Finally, our BetMGM bonus code is another welcome offer to check out American Odds American odds use a completely different system to that of Fractional or Decimal NBA odds.
All three odds types can generally be interchanged very easily at most top sportsbooks so you should have no trouble finding the odds type that is best for you to bet on basketball. Decimal Odds With decimal odds, you will be given a specific number which will be the odds on your bet winning. So for example, if we took basketball betting odds on a game between the Lakers and the Celtics using the decimal system, odds would be given to each team in numbers such as 2.
Decimal odds are arguably the easiest to comprehend and should be used as a default for beginners who bet on basketball. Fractional Odds Fractional odds are similar to decimal odds when you bet on basketball in the sense that the odds given will be multiplied against your bet to decide your winnings but uses fractions instead of numbers to display the odds. Another difference is that the amount you will win will be provided as profit instead of total winnings.
Basketball Odds In basketball line betting, the sportsbook handicaps the game by creating a margin that attempts to equalize both teams.
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In sports with a single scoring system, like hockey or soccer where you can only ever score one goal at a time, key numbers are less important. However, in sports like football and basketball where you are awarded different numbers of points depending on the type of score, key numbers become very important, especially to gambling. These two numbers are closely related. The value of the different scores in a sport tends to determine the most common margin of victory. Example: By far the most common margin of victory in the NFL is three points, the value of a field goal.
Each sport has different key numbers associated with it. They are often either the value of a certain type of score, a multiple of that value, or one number up or down from that value. This is because when games are close, one successful scoring opportunity is often enough to win the game. When an NFL game is close near the end, teams are more likely to try to win with a field goal, rather than run the risk of scoring a touchdown.
This leads to statistics like the one above. An important thing to note is that key numbers are most relevant for certain bets on the outcome of individual games, namely, point spreads and point totals. Key numbers are not very useful for futures bets or other forms of sports betting. So, now we know that key numbers are the most common margins of victory, determined by the scoring system. How can we use this information to our advantage in sports betting? Keep reading to find out.
The most popular bet in all of sports gambling is called the point spread. It involves a predicting not just which team will win the game, but what the margin of victory will be. What is a Point Spread? A point spread is a way of leveling the playing field when betting on teams with differing abilities by helping the underdog and handicapping the favorite. The favorite team will be given a negative point value, while the underdog will be given a positive point value.
If you bet on the Eagles here, you would win the bet if they either win the game or lose by less than 3 points or more. The second set of numbers is the odds and it tells you how much the bet pays out. Check out our guide to reading betting lines and odds for more info on that. Point Spreads and Key Numbers So you know which key numbers are important for each sport. Unfortunately, so does the bookmaker. As you can see in the example above, the point spread is often placed around a key number.
Bookmakers will be reluctant to move off key numbers in the point spread since they are the most common margin of victory. However, there are still lots of ways to use key numbers to your advantage in point spread betting.
When you see a point spread that is just over or under a key number for example, 3. In this example, if the underdog loses by a field goal, you still win your bet. What is Point Total Betting? Point total betting is quite simple. You are betting that the total number of points scored by both teams combined will be either higher or lower than a certain number chosen by the sportsbook.
In football, a typical point total bet might look like this: New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles Over 41 Under 41 In this case, the bookmaker has indicated that they believe the combined total scores in the game will be If you think the final total will be higher, bet the over. If you think it will be lower, bet the under. The fact that points are scored in certain increments means that some points totals are much more likely than others.
When you know the most common combinations, you can learn to spot when the point total is at a potentially valuable number depending on what you think the outcome of the game will be. Some bookmakers will even allow you to bet on the exact total number of points scored, or offer point total betting in an individual quarter or half of a game.
Key numbers are relevant for all of these. Key numbers are most relevant for irregular, multi-point scoring sports. This is due to the scoring system. The most important key numbers in NFL football are, in order of importance: 3, 7 and The first key number is the value of a field goal, the second is the value of a converted touchdown, and the third is the value of the two scores together. Think about some of the more common sounding scores for NFL games — , , , , All of these are decided by key numbers.
Think about all the tight games you have seen over the years where a team is tactically trying to wind the clock down after a field goal. A converted touchdown scores 7 points in NFL, and this is the second most common margin of victory. However, it is significantly less common than a 3 point margin, meaning that while certainly a key number, 7 is less significant in NFL than 3.
Since it is also important to pay attention to score combinations, 10 is the next most important key number, the value of a field goal and a touchdown together. In this case, the bookmakers think the game will be fairly close, with the Patriots the favorite. Since the most common winning margin for a favorite by far is 3 points if they were to move the Patriots to In some cases, they will change the odds on each team rather than change the spread.
Tips and Strategies for Key Numbers and Point Spreads The thing to watch out for is when the point spread is either a key number or just over or under a key number. Once you get used to all the key numbers in NFL, you will automatically view the point spread through the lens of key numbers, One important thing to remember is that key numbers are not some magic formula to winning sports bets.
Bookmakers are well aware of key numbers too and set their lines accordingly. Instead, we should think of key numbers as one of many important factors that we consider as smart sports bettors, like odds. They are not a cheat code, but understanding them will absolutely make you a more successful bettor. Here are some practical strategies involving key numbers: Shop Around for Key Number Opportunities Different bookmakers offer different prices.
Often, comparing the different odds available can give you more information. This effectively means you can choose your own point spread. Since you know how important key numbers are in the point spread, you can accept slightly worse odds to move the point spread on or off a key number. However, as always the bookmakers are aware of this. They will likely charge you higher odds to buy a point or half a point around a key number.
However, there are still plenty of occasions that buying the points around key numbers is worth it. It is up to you to spot the value. The important thing is that your predictions and bets are informed by the value of key numbers. The most common total points scored, and therefore key numbers for point total betting, in order of importance are: 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47 Just like in the point spread, the key is to look for times when the point total line is a key number.
Generally, point total betting is a simple way to bet. Do you think the total points will more or less than this number? However, key numbers are still extremely relevant for these bets. Here are some easy to follow tips for factoring key numbers into your totals bets. Shop Around It is worth repeating that key numbers are not a cheat code but they do give you another factor to compare when shopping for the best odds at different sportsbooks.
A quick refresher if the details are murky: In football games there are some numbers that are a more frequent gap between the points the winner scores in a game and the points the loser scores. The most frequent of these gaps is three points. Seven is the second most common number because of how often a team wins by a single touchdown. Other key numbers can be determined by combining touchdowns and field goals in different ways — for example ten is a key number because that represents a team winning by a field goal and a touchdown, and so is four which is the result if one team scores a touchdown and the other responds with a field goal.
These numbers are important for bettors to be aware of because they can represent a big difference in the bottom line. If key numbers are such an important factor in football handicapping, then the next logical question is clear — are there key numbers in basketball? The simple answer is no.
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So, now we know that key numbers are the most common margins of victory, determined by the scoring system. How can we use this information to our advantage in sports betting? Keep reading to find out. The most popular bet in all of sports gambling is called the point spread.
It involves a predicting not just which team will win the game, but what the margin of victory will be. What is a Point Spread? A point spread is a way of leveling the playing field when betting on teams with differing abilities by helping the underdog and handicapping the favorite.
The favorite team will be given a negative point value, while the underdog will be given a positive point value. If you bet on the Eagles here, you would win the bet if they either win the game or lose by less than 3 points or more. The second set of numbers is the odds and it tells you how much the bet pays out. Check out our guide to reading betting lines and odds for more info on that. Point Spreads and Key Numbers So you know which key numbers are important for each sport.
Unfortunately, so does the bookmaker. As you can see in the example above, the point spread is often placed around a key number. Bookmakers will be reluctant to move off key numbers in the point spread since they are the most common margin of victory. However, there are still lots of ways to use key numbers to your advantage in point spread betting. When you see a point spread that is just over or under a key number for example, 3. In this example, if the underdog loses by a field goal, you still win your bet.
What is Point Total Betting? Point total betting is quite simple. You are betting that the total number of points scored by both teams combined will be either higher or lower than a certain number chosen by the sportsbook. In football, a typical point total bet might look like this: New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles Over 41 Under 41 In this case, the bookmaker has indicated that they believe the combined total scores in the game will be If you think the final total will be higher, bet the over.
If you think it will be lower, bet the under. The fact that points are scored in certain increments means that some points totals are much more likely than others. When you know the most common combinations, you can learn to spot when the point total is at a potentially valuable number depending on what you think the outcome of the game will be.
Some bookmakers will even allow you to bet on the exact total number of points scored, or offer point total betting in an individual quarter or half of a game. Key numbers are relevant for all of these. Key numbers are most relevant for irregular, multi-point scoring sports. This is due to the scoring system. The most important key numbers in NFL football are, in order of importance: 3, 7 and The first key number is the value of a field goal, the second is the value of a converted touchdown, and the third is the value of the two scores together.
Think about some of the more common sounding scores for NFL games — , , , , All of these are decided by key numbers. Think about all the tight games you have seen over the years where a team is tactically trying to wind the clock down after a field goal. A converted touchdown scores 7 points in NFL, and this is the second most common margin of victory. However, it is significantly less common than a 3 point margin, meaning that while certainly a key number, 7 is less significant in NFL than 3.
Since it is also important to pay attention to score combinations, 10 is the next most important key number, the value of a field goal and a touchdown together. In this case, the bookmakers think the game will be fairly close, with the Patriots the favorite. Since the most common winning margin for a favorite by far is 3 points if they were to move the Patriots to In some cases, they will change the odds on each team rather than change the spread.
Tips and Strategies for Key Numbers and Point Spreads The thing to watch out for is when the point spread is either a key number or just over or under a key number. Once you get used to all the key numbers in NFL, you will automatically view the point spread through the lens of key numbers, One important thing to remember is that key numbers are not some magic formula to winning sports bets.
Bookmakers are well aware of key numbers too and set their lines accordingly. Instead, we should think of key numbers as one of many important factors that we consider as smart sports bettors, like odds. They are not a cheat code, but understanding them will absolutely make you a more successful bettor. Here are some practical strategies involving key numbers: Shop Around for Key Number Opportunities Different bookmakers offer different prices. Often, comparing the different odds available can give you more information.
This effectively means you can choose your own point spread. Since you know how important key numbers are in the point spread, you can accept slightly worse odds to move the point spread on or off a key number. However, as always the bookmakers are aware of this. They will likely charge you higher odds to buy a point or half a point around a key number. However, there are still plenty of occasions that buying the points around key numbers is worth it.
It is up to you to spot the value. The important thing is that your predictions and bets are informed by the value of key numbers. The most common total points scored, and therefore key numbers for point total betting, in order of importance are: 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47 Just like in the point spread, the key is to look for times when the point total line is a key number. Generally, point total betting is a simple way to bet. Do you think the total points will more or less than this number?
However, key numbers are still extremely relevant for these bets. Here are some easy to follow tips for factoring key numbers into your totals bets. Shop Around It is worth repeating that key numbers are not a cheat code but they do give you another factor to compare when shopping for the best odds at different sportsbooks. When betting the under, look for totals lines that are just over a key number. When betting the over, look for totals lines that are just under a key number.
This sounds simple but being a good sports bettor involves plenty of simple and methodical actions like actually doing the legwork of checking around for the best price. Get On the Right Side of Key Totals Numbers A slightly more complicated situation arises if you have a very specific prediction for your point total bet, maybe from predictive betting software. Take our example again: New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles Over 41 Under 41 Say your model predicted that the total score will be Without understanding key numbers, you might think that betting on the Under here is a good bet, according to your prediction.
However, we know that of the seven most common point totals, five are over 41 and two are under. Now imagine your model predicted that the total score would be Since you know about the key numbers, the Over 41 suddenly looks a very attractive bet based on the most common outcomes.
Without knowing the key numbers, the two bets above might be equally attractive. Depending on the odds, it may be possible to buy a point total closer to a key number which makes sense for your prediction, which you would pay for with slightly worse odds. Or, perhaps you could simply find a better points total by shopping around.
That runs contrary to what you might have heard — some people will tell you that seven is a key number in the NBA, and three is one in college basketball. Similar results are found with college basketball analysis, also. In football handicappers spend a lot of time worrying about why a line was set at three, if it is likely to move from that number, and in which direction it is likely to move. You just have to be concerned about whether the line as it stands represents value.
There is no excuse for things like this for not checking out the information that you hear — it only takes a few minutes to use Google to confirm or rebut what you hear or read. When you are betting your hard earned money you want to be sure. More sports handicapping articles :.
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Tweet this text What if we told you there are certain numbers in certain sports that can dramatically improve your chances of making winning bets?
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| Hero editor ethereal magic atribute | For example, in the MLB the most common total runs scored in a game is 7, followed by 9. Don't get into the habit of thinking that they are machines, because that will cause you to ignore the important factors that are likely staring you right in the face each and every night. Clicking on the spread number will highlight that bet. Prior to the season, the NFL moved extra point attempts back from the 2-yard line to the yard line, making PATs more difficult. In basketball, things get a little bit trickier. |
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